Did Villaraigosa's Midnight Basketball Really Cut Crime?

Did Villaraigosa's Midnight Basketball Really Cut Crime? By Walter Moore, Candidate for Mayor of Los Angeles, WalterMooreForMayor.com September 8, 2008 Villaraigosa has been running around town this week telling anyone with a camera or microphone that crime rates were at "historic" low levels this summer, and that he deserves all the credit because he kept certain parks open till midnight. Now, I strongly support having a parks and recreation department, and providing organized sports leagues for children. Sports not only keeps kids out of trouble, but teaches them invaluable life lessons (e.g., teamwork, playing by the rules, sportsmanship, the importance of a cup, etc.). But I don't buy for a nanosecond the Mayor's claim that his keeping parks open till midnight constituted some kind of innovative and historic crime-fighting breakthrough. Here's why: 1. Midnight Basketball Has Been Around Since At Least 1986. That's when the "National Midnight Basketball League" was founded. So Villaraigosa and his staff did not come up with some kind of novel, cutting-edge, outside-the-box policy innovation. They recycled. 2. Villaraigosa's Own Numbers Show Murders Rose 47% After His Program Began. Villaraigosa's "Summer Night Lights" program started on July 4, and ended on Labor Day. According to the LAPD's crime statistics, however, the number of murders actually rose after the program started. There were 17 murders between June 15 and July 12, but 25 murders between July 13 and August 8 -- an increase of 47%. And there were another 23 murders between August 9 and September 6, an increase of 35% over the initial period. If the program worked, wouldn't the number murders go down instead of up? 3. Villaraigosa Understates The Crime Rate By Overstating The City's Population. To avoid mentioning the actual, shameful number of murders and shootings in our city -- 248 murders and 1,112 shootings so far this year -- Villaraigosa and City Hall instead talk about the crime rate, and claim that the crime rate is lower. It's a way to try to "spin" bad news (248 murders in eight months) into seemingly good news (less crime). But even Villaraigosa's crime rate statistics are dubious. Villaraigosa overstates the city's population, and thereby understates the city's crime rate. The LAPD's crime statistics reports show the city's population as 4,220,260. However, that figure is 174,387 higher than the estimate from the California Department of Finance, and 385,920 higher than the latest Census estimate. Nor have I found any other agency that uses the LAPD's 4,220,260 figure. Inflating the population figures is a fancy way to lie about the crime rate. 4. Violent Crime Rates Have Dropped Consistently Throughout California Since 1994. The Attorney General's office keeps track of crime statistics state-wide. A rising tide lifts all boats. One can identify all sorts of potential causes, such as adoption of the three-strikes law and demographic shifts. Villaraigosa, however, never even mentions the fact that, judging from the statistics, crime is down throughout California. Nor has he even claimed, much less tried to prove, that crime rates are dropping any faster in the City of L.A. than in surrounding cities or counties. Instead, he merely points out that crime is supposedly down in our city, and claims credit for same. 5. Villaraigosa Exaggerates The Number Of Police Officers He Has Added. You've heard Villaraigosa talk about adding 1,000 officers, right? Let's look at the real numbers: The LAPD had 9,247 officers in 2005. It has 9,727 officers today. That's an increase of just 480 officers, or just five percent. During this same period, however, Villaraigosa increased the City's spending by over 32% -- up $1.7 billion per year. So he had plenty of money to increase the force, yet chose not to do so. While we're on the subject, Villaraigosa's stated goal is to have a police force of 10,000. Bratton, however, says he needs a force of 12,500 to make our city the safest big city in America. And if we had as many police per capita as New York City, the LAPD would have 17,939 officers. You read that right: we would almost need to double our force to be as safe as New York City. 6. The U.S. Attorney And ICE Are Fighting Crime By Prosecuting Illegal Alien Gang Members. Villaraigosa insists on making our city a "sanctuary" for illegal alien gang members, despite the murder of Jamiel Shaw, II. The U.S. Attorney and ICE, however, have taken significant steps this year to arrest, prosecute and deport illegal aliens who come here not to work, but to commit crimes, including murder. The Daily News put it as follows on September 1, 2008: "Fueled by a broad crackdown by immigration officials, federal prosecutions of illegal immigrants with felony records in Southern California are on pace this year to hit a high not seen in nearly a decade. "So far this fiscal year, there have been 657 federal prosecutions - up more than 20 percent from the previous year, according to figures from the U.S. Attorney's Office in Los Angeles. "And with three months still left to count - and about 50 cases filed per month - this year's total should surpass the 792 cases filed in 2003-04 and mark a nearly 400 percent increase over the 135 cases filed in 2000-01." Which do you think probably cut crime more? Showing "Nutty Professor II: The Klumps" at a local recreation center? Or stepping up prosecutions of illegal alien career criminals who have committed felonies? The Bottom Line As I said, I'm all for sports and recreation programs. I like concerts in parks. But I also like honesty with my public policy. If you want a Mayor who won't claim credit for the sun rising each morning, if you want a Mayor who will hire enough police to make every neighborhood a safe neighborhood year-round, I'm your man. And I can be your Mayor, if you help me reach the magic number required to qualify for matching funds: $150,000. We're less than $20,000 away from that target. If you haven't contributed, please do so now. If you have, thank you, and how about convincing a friend, relative, neighbor or co-worker to do likewise? Click here to contribute.